In the loop 30 June 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.75/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.82/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the INR (+0.3%), MXN (+0.2%) and PHP (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.5%), CLP (-1.0%) and KRW (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

China’s manufacturing PMI improved in June but remained in contraction.
The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7 in June, from 49.5 in May.
The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in June; the new orders index increased for the first time in three months.

The UK Nationwide house price for June is scheduled for release tomorrow; prices are expected to have increased by 3.1% y/y, down from 3.5% y/y in May.
Eurozone CPI for June is due out tomorrow and is expected to have moderated further to the ECB’s 2% target.
The data is likely to bolster the case for the ECB to reduce interest rates again this year.
The minutes of the ECB’s meeting on 4-5 June will be watched closely for any hints on the appetite for further interest rate cuts.

The US JOLTS job openings for May are due out tomorrow and are likely to have slipped to 7.30m, from 7.391m in April.
The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI, also due out tomorrow, is expected to have improved slightly in June, to 48.7, from 48.5 in May.
The private sector ADP employment report for June, due on Wednesday, is expected to show an increase in private payrolls of 90k, after having increased by 37k in May.
The trade deficit for May is due out on Thursday; the deficit is likely to have widened to $71.1bn, from a deficit of $61.6bn in April.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for June, in the spotlight on Thursday, are expected to have increased, by 113k, down from an increase of 139k in May.
The unemployment rate is likely to have to have increased 4.3% in June, from 4.2% in May.
The US will celebrate Independence Day on Friday (4 July).

Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for May are scheduled for release today.
PSCE is likely to come in at 4.5% y/y in May, from 4.6% y/y in April.
The monthly Budget balance data for May is also on the cards; the budget deficit came in at R64.6bn in April.
The May trade balance is scheduled for release on today; a trade surplus of R26.0bn is expected, from R14.1bn in April.
The BER manufacturing PMI for June is due for release tomorrow; the index slipped to 43.1 in May, from 44.7 in April.
The June Naamsa vehicle sales are also due tomorrow; vehicle sales increased by 22.0% y/y in May.
The BER inflation expectations for Q2:25 are due out on Wednesday.
The industry-wide PMI for June is due out on Thursday; the index is currently above the 50 benchmark line, at 50.8.
Electricity production and consumption for May are scheduled for release on Thursday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.63/bbl; ($67.77/bbl*).
Gold is at $3289/oz ($3274/oz*).
SA CDS 191bps*, Brazil 152bps* and Turkey 304bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%*, German bund at 2.59%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.02%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.95%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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