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In the loop 24 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.03/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.01/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PHP (+1.0%), COP (+0.6%) and THB (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-0.8%), RUB (-0.3%) and HKD (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets: the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
 
  • Central bank watch: in China, commercial banks kept the loan prime rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month, signalling a preference for policy stability amid mixed growth dynamics.
 
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday stated that the central bank must remain “agile” in calibrating monetary policy, even though it is currently well positioned.
  • She reaffirmed that policymakers would continue to determine interest rates on a strictly meeting-by-meeting basis, assessing incoming data “each and every step of the way”. 
  • Lagarde characterised the balance of risks to the outlook as “broadly balanced”.
  • Addressing speculation about her future, she reiterated that her baseline intention is to complete her full term as head of the ECB and emphasised the importance of the central bank maintaining its independence.
  • She added that central bank independence is “is critically important to the mission that we have to deliver upon”. 
 
  • US Fed Governor Christopher Waller said today that a potential rate cut at the 17-18 March FOMC meeting would hinge on upcoming labour market data.
  • He noted that he would be inclined to keep rates unchanged if February employment data suggested downside risks to the economy as having eased.
  • However, a weaker labour market report could strengthen the case for a 25 bps rate cut.
  • While welcoming recent positive data, Waller cautioned that the figures “may contain more noise than signal,” underscoring uncertainty around the true state of labour market conditions.
  • Waller dissented from the Fed's January decision to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged, having instead favoured a 25 bps cut amid emerging signs of softness in the labour market.
 
  • US durable goods orders declined by 1.4% m/m in December (final estimate), after having increased by 5.4% m/m in November.
  • Core capital goods orders, a key gauge of business investment that excludes aircraft and defence, increased by 0.8% m/m in December, down from 0.9% m/m in November.
  • Factory orders were down by 0.7% m/m in December, following a 2.7% m/m decline in November.
 
  • The US S&P Cotality Case-Shiller house price index for December is due today.
  • Annual home price growth likely eased, in line with a moderation in the median sales price of existing single-family homes.
  • The FHFA house price index for December, is likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m, after having increased by 0.6% m/m in November.
  • The Conference Board consumer confidence index for February is also scheduled for release.
  • The index is expected to rise to 87.0, from 84.5 in January, suggesting a modest improvement in household sentiment.
 
  • Locally, the SARB leading indicator for December is on the cards today; the leading indicator increased to 118.4 in November, from 116.8 in October.
  • The largest positive contributors were accelerations in the 6-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and job advertisement space.
  • The only negative contributors were a narrowing of the interest rate spread and a deceleration in the 6-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 18.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 19.6% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $71.89/bbl; ($71.49/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $5168/oz ($5227/oz*).
  • SA CDS 138bbps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 223bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.03%*, German bund at 2.71%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.01%*, SA's R2035 at 7.88%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: SA leading indicator (December)
  • 15h15: US ADP weekly employment change (7 February)
  • 16h00: US FHFA house price index (December), S&P Cotality CS house price index (December)
  • 17h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (February)
 

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