In the loop 13 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.38/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.31/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+1.5%), KRW (+0.6%) and MXN (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.9%), TRY (-0.2%) and CZK (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.

Iran war: diplomatic efforts suffered a significant setback over the weekend.
Iranian officials argued that the latest US strikes had rendered recent diplomatic initiatives futile and undermined earlier ceasefire understandings.
Washington accused Tehran of violating a recently discussed agreement through its actions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Central bank watch: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to deliver his semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.
He is unlikely to offer any clues on the future path of interest rates given his preference for no forward guidance.
The Bank of Canada is likely to hold the overnight rate target steady at the Governing Council's meeting on Wednesday.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to publish the minutes of its June policy meeting on Thursday.

China's Q2:26 GDP report, due on Wednesday, is expected to show economic growth slowing below the lower end of the government's 4.5-5.0% annual target range.
June economic activity data may indicate a further slowdown in investment and retail sales, while industrial production is expected to remain resilient, supported by robust export demand.

The UK's monthly GDP release for May is due on Thursday.
Monthly GDP is likely to have increased by 0.1% m/m in May, after having declined by 0.1% m/m in April.
Retail sales data suggests that consumer spending picked up in May, supported by good weather and promotions, and contributed positively to GDP in May.
The Eurozone trade balance for May is also scheduled for release on Thursday.
Eurozone CPI for June (final estimate) is due out on Friday and is likely to come in at 2.8% y/y in June, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 3.2% y/y May.

The US June CPI report will be a key focus tomorrow.
Headline inflation is expected to come in at 3.8% y/y in June, from 4.2% y/y in May.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have declined by 0.1% in June, following a 0.5% increase in May.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for June, scheduled for release tomorrow, likely increased to 95.7 in June, from 95.3 in May.
The US Empire State manufacturing index for July, due out on Wednesday, is likely to have increased to 9.7, from 5.7 in June.
The PPI print for June is also due for release on Wednesday; PPI is expected to come in at 6.2% y/y in June, from 6.5% y/y in May.
Retail sales for June, due out on Thursday, likely cooled to 0.3% m/m, down from 0.9% m/m in May.
The NAHB housing market index for July is expected to have remained steady, at 35.
The NAHB noted that sentiment is likely to remain soft “until barriers are eased and conditions improve for home building”.
Business inventories likely grew by 0.3% m/m in May, after having increased by 0.5% m/m in April.
Housing starts for June, out on Friday, likely jumped by 12.5% m/m, after May's 15.4% m/m decline.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July, likely increased to 51.0, from 49.5 in June.

Locally, mining production for May is due out tomorrow; production is expected to have increased by 1.5% y/y in May, down from 8.2% y/y in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $79.38/bbl; ($76.01/bbl*).
Gold is at $4063/oz ($4119/oz*).
SA CDS 122bps*, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 224bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.56%*, German bund at 3.06%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.42%*, SA's R2035 at 8.26%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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