In the loop 17 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.84$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.82/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MXN (+0.7%), HUF (+0.6%) and ZAR (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the PHP (-0.6%), TWD (-0.4%) and THB (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

The Fed’s Beige Book highlighted that economic activity in the US “increased slightly” between late May and early July.
It noted, however, that “uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses”.
All the regions reported price increases over the period.
Businesses noted that they experienced modest-to-pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs.
The Beige Book further stated that many firms passed on at least a portion of cost increases to consumers through price hikes or surcharges.
However, several others said that they did not raise prices because of customers’ growing price sensitivity.

President Trump yesterday noted that it is “highly unlikely” that he would fire Jerome Powell as Fed chair.
The comments come after President Trump suggested that he was leaning towards dismissing the head of the central bank.

President Trump commented that he would be sending tariff letters to more than 150 countries, notifying them of their tariff rates.
He expects these tariffs to be in the region of 10% to 15%.

New York Fed President John Williams has commented that he expects tariffs to have a bigger impact on inflation in the months ahead.
He believes that this will make the Fed’s current restrictive stance “entirely appropriate”.
He added that currently the Fed is only seeing relatively modest effects of tariffs in the hard aggregate data so far.
The Fed is widely expected to hold the Fed funds rate steady when it meets at the end of July.

The US retail sales for June, due out today, were likely up by 0.1% m/m June, after a 0.9% m/m decline in May.
Sales, excluding autos and gas, are expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in June, following a 0.1% m/m decline in May.
The NAHB housing market index for July is also on the cards today.
Homebuilders likely became slightly more optimistic, albeit mildly in July, as mortgage rates fell.
The index is likely to have increased to 33 in July, from 32 in June.
Business inventories are expected to have stagnated in May.

The final Eurozone CPI, scheduled for release today, is likely to confirm that headline inflation edged up in June, to 2.0% y/y.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3% in June, from having flatlined in May.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.3% y/y in June, matching May’s increase.

Brent crude oil is currently at $68.76/bbl; ($68.52/bbl*).
Gold is at $3339/oz ($3347/oz*).
SA CDS 195bps*, Brazil 151bps* and Turkey 293bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.47%*, German bund at 2.68%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.95%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.87%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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