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In the loop 30 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.09/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.12/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the CLP (+0.8%), COP (+0.3%) and ZAR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-1.5%), ARS (-1.2%) and INR (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: weekend efforts focused on crisis containment rather than a breakthrough.
  • Pakistan hosted meetings involving regional powers including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing the risk of further escalation.
 
  • China's PMIs for March due out this week is expected to show the impact of the Middle East energy shock on the economy.
  • The impact of higher prices and supply concerns will likely dampen a pickup in manufacturing typically seen after the Lunar New Year holidays.
 
  • The Eurozone economic confidence for March is due for release later today; confidence is likely to have fallen to 96.7 in March, from 98.3 in February.
  • The Eurozone CPI for March is the key release in the region this week; higher fuel prices are expected to push up headline inflation.
  • The impact of higher natural gas costs on household utility bills is likely to emerge more gradually, as multi-month contracts limit the immediate pass-through.
  • Headline CPI is likely to come in at 2.6% y/y in March, after having increased by 1.9% y/y in February.
  • The unemployment rate for February is scheduled for release on Wednesday and is likely to have remained steady, at 6.1%.
  • The UK Nationwide house price data for March is due for release tomorrow.
  • Prices are expected to have flatlined in March, following a 0.3% m/m increase in February.
 
  • The US S&P Cotality Case-Shiller price index for January is due tomorrow; home prices in January likely mostly maintained December's growth pace.
  • The Conference Board consumer confidence index for March is also scheduled for release tomorrow and is expected to have declined to 88.0, from 91.2 in February.
  • The JOLTS job openings for February are on the cards tomorrow and are likely to reflect a decline in job openings. 
  • Higher gas prices are adding near-term pressure on household budgets, constraining discretionary spending. 
  • US retail sales data are due on Wednesday; sales are forecast to have increased by 0.5% m/m in February, following a 0.2% m/m fall in January.
  • Sales are likely to have been driven by a rebound in automotive sales.
  • The US ISM manufacturing PMI for March, due on Wednesday, is likely to have remained unchanged at 52.4 in March.
  • The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for March are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 60k, after having declined by 92k in February.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.4%.
  • Policymakers will be keeping a close eye on the data for a clearer read on the pace of job growth in March after a volatile start to the year.
 
  • Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for February are scheduled for release today.
  • PSCE is expected to have increased by 9.12% y/y in February, after having increased by from 8.83% y/y in January.
  • The monthly Budget balance data for February is also due for release for today; a budget surplus of R26.0bn is expected in February, from a deficit of R69.7bn in January.
  • The SARB will release the March Quarterly Bulletin tomorrow.
  • Stats SA's non-farm payrolls for Q4:25 are on the cards tomorrow; non-farm payrolls increased by 0.3% q/q in Q3:25.
  • The February trade balance is due for release tomorrow; the trade surplus is expected to have widened to R20.0bn in February, from a surplus of R9.3bn in January. 
  • The BER manufacturing PMI for March is due for release on Wednesday; the index is likely to have increased to 48.0 in March, from 47.4 in February.
  • The March Naamsa vehicle sales are also on Wednesday; vehicle sales increased by 11.4% y/y in February.
  • Electricity production and consumption for February are due for release on Thursday.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 90.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 4.4% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $115.03/bbl; ($112.57/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4507/oz ($4494/oz*).
  • SA CDS 199bps*, Brazil 141bps* and Turkey 307bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.38%*, German bund at 3.09%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.28%*, SA's R2035 at 9.15%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: SA M3 money supply ad PSCE (February)
  • 10h30: UK net consumer credit (February), M4 money supply (February)
  • 11h00: Eurozone economic and consumer confidence (March)
  • 14h00: SA monthly budget balance (February)
 

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