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South Africa 14 November 2022

Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • This report tracks power utility Eskom’s ability to supply power to the grid, demand for electricity, and the consumption of electricity. It reviews Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) as well as how unplanned outages are affecting the current status of power supply in SA.
  • Just four months after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced his energy reforms to try and end intermittent outages, rolling blackouts continue and hold back the economic recovery. Supply cuts have been implemented for the past 11 months, with a record number of load-shedding days.
  • Eskom recently released its Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2023 (MTAO2023). The MTSAO measures the power system’s ability to meet demand over the next five years. This report painted a negative outlook for 2023-2027, and noted that power cuts are expected to continue throughout 2023; the power utility struggles with the carrying out of planned maintenance whilst having to contend with internal issues and sabotage.
  • Demand continues to grow, while the power utility’s fleet exhibits no sign of improved generation capacity despite the reforms announced recently – resulting in increased unplanned outages.
  • Electricity consumed is estimated to have been around 3,7% higher in October than September although it is down 3.7% on average in Q3:22 from the previous quarter. The EAF averaged around 56,6% in October, which remains well below the YtD average (59%) notwithstanding the utility’s effort to improve EAF to a target of 75%.

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