In the loop 05 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.35/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.37/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+1.5%), COP (+1.2%) and ZAR (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.8%), RUB (-0.5%) and PHP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: US President Trump described the ongoing negotiations as Iran's “last chance” to reach an agreement.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that a deal to restore freedom of navigation through the strait could be reached within days.
These comments helped ease market concerns and briefly reversed earlier gains in oil prices that had been driven by fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today.
The RBI noted that it is waiting to see whether higher energy costs from the Iran war will spill over into broader inflation.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson yesterday commented that she is keeping an “open mind” on the future path of US interest rates.
Paulson cautioned that a single month of better readings was not sufficient to declare victory over inflation and stressed that underlying price pressures remain too high.
She supported the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, noting that the labour market remains broadly stable and that monetary policy is exerting some restraint on the economy.
Policymakers are assessing whether inflation is moving sustainably back towards the Fed's 2% target.

The US ISM services PMI for July is due out on Wednesday and is likely to have increased to 54.5, from 54.0 in June.
The ADP private sector payrolls for July are scheduled for release today; private sector payrolls are likely to have increased by 65k in July, after having increased by 98k in June.
The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls for July that are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 80k in July, after having increased by 57k in June.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.2%.

Locally, SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago yesterday commented that SA must be willing to take difficult and uncomfortable risks to lift economic growth and secure long-term fiscal sustainability.
He noted that the economy has expanded by less than 1% a year on average for more than a decade, held back by corruption, crime and persistent bottlenecks in the energy, water and logistics sectors.
While reforms under Operation Vulindlela have started to deliver positive results, Kganyago cautioned that progress has been gradual.
He argued that breaking out of the country's low-growth trap will require a greater willingness to embrace calculated risks that can unlock stronger and more sustainable economic growth.

The SA S&P Global industry-wide PMI for July in on the cards today; the index is currently in expansion, at 50.5.
The PMI increased in June, from 49.6 in May, which was driven largely by a sharp easing in inflationary pressures.
However, the headline improvement concealed continued weakness in underlying demand conditions.

Brent crude oil is currently at $78.97/bbl; ($79.36/bbl*).
Gold is at $4140/oz ($4077/oz*).
SA CDS 122bps*, Brazil 119bps* and Turkey 229bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.61%*, German bund at 3.10%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.53%*, SA's R2035 at 8.33%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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