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In the loop 26 April 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R19.01/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R19.02/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.9%), CZK (+0.7%) and PLN (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the PEN (-0.6%), MXN (-0.5%) and PHP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
  • The UK GfK consumer confidence index increased to a two-year high in April, at -19, from -21 in March.
  • The confidence gauge is now well above -30 recorded in April last year when the cost-of-living crisis was still weighing heavily on consumers.
  • Consumers have had a more positive view of the economy and their own finances during April.
  • The April improvement comes on the back of inflation moderating to its lowest since 2021, national insurance payroll tax cuts, and domestic energy prices dropping to their lowest in two years.
  • There are also signs that the UK economy is recovering from last year’s recession.
  • The BOJ held its benchmark interest rate steady today, as expected.
  • The central bank noted inflation risks as skewed to the upside this year. 
  • The BOJ expects inflation to hover around the bank's 2% target over the next three years.
  • The central bank added that it would continue to buy JGBs, in accordance with the decisions made at the March policy meeting.
  • The Russian central bank’s interest rate decision is expected today; the bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, at 16%.
  • The central bank, however, might set the scene for an interest rate cut in June or July.
  • The bank is expected to cut interest rates to 13% by the end of the year, should inflation moderate as expected.
  • Eurozone inflation expectations for 1 year and 3 years ahead for March are scheduled for release later today.
  • One-year-ahead inflation expectations came in at 3.1% in February.
  • Three-year-ahead inflation expectations are likely to come in at 2.4% in March, from 2.5% in February.
  • US personal income and spending for March are in the spotlight today.
  • Personal income is expected to have increased by 0.5% m/m in March, from a 0.3% m/m increase in February.
  • Personal spending is also likely to have increased in March, by 0.6% m/m, following a 0.8% m/m increase in February.
  • The Fed will keep an eye on the core PCE deflator, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in March, matching February’s increase.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 16.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 13.3% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $89.42/bbl; ($89.01/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2337/oz ($2328/oz*).
  • SA CDS 253bps*, Brazil 156bps* and Turkey 310bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.70%*, German bund at 2.63%*, SA 10-year generic at 12.23%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.86%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 10h00: Eurozone ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (March), M3 money supply (March)
  • 12h30: Russia interest rate decision – no change expected
  • 14h30: US personal income and spending (March)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (April – final)

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