In the loop 17 September 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.36/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.34/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.9%), RON (+0.9%) and HUF (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.7%), ARS (-0.2%) and IDR (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC’s meeting will conclude today.
Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), is now a voting member of the FOMC after being sworn in as a member of the Fed Board of Governors yesterday.
He has taken unpaid leave of absence from the CEA to attend the FOMC meeting; he pledged independence during his confirmation hearing.
“What I can tell you is that if I am confirmed to the Federal Reserve, I will act independently based on my own independent analysis of the economy and economic policy”, Miran said.
Governor Lisa Cook is participating in the FOMC meeting after a DC Court of Appeals ruling that she may continue to perform her duties.
The FOMC is widely expected to lower the Fed funds rate by 25 bps – the first cut this year.
The Bank of Canada is also anticipated to cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps, to 2.50%.
Bank Indonesia and the Central Bank of Brazil are both expected to keep rates unchanged at their respective meetings today.

Japan’s trade deficit widened, albeit by less than expected, in August.
The deficit came in at ¥242.5bn in August, from a deficit of ¥117.5bn in July.
Exports contracted for a fourth consecutive month, falling 0.1% y/y in August; lower car and steel exports led the decline.
Gains in exports to Asia and the EU helped to soften the blow of the largest drop in the value of shipments to the US in more than four years.
The US is Japan’s second largest export market, after China; the US tariff on Japan’s exports are set at 15% for automobiles and other goods but steel faces a tariff of 50%.
Japan’s imports declined by 5.2% y/y in August.

The UK will release inflation data for August today, ahead of the BOE’s rate decision tomorrow.
CPI inflation likely accelerated m/m in August; CPI is expected at 0.3% m/m, up from 0.1% m/m in July.
This would keep CPI inflation at 3.8% in y/y terms in August.
Core inflation, however, is expected to have decelerated to 3.6% y/y in August, from 3.8% y/y in July.

Locally, CPI inflation data for August and retail trade sales for July are due out today.
CPI likely rose slightly in August, to 3.6% y/y, from 3.5% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, from 0.9% in July.
Core CPI is projected at 3.1% y/y in August, up from 3.0% y/y in July.
The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow.
July retail sales volume growth is expected to have accelerated to 2.7% y/y, from a 1.6% y/y increase in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $68.35/bbl; ($68.47/bbl*).
Gold is at $3680/oz ($3690/oz*).
SA CDS 149bps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 247bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.02%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.34%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.23%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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