In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.16/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.18/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+0.4%), THB (+0.4%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.8%), HUF (-0.7%) and MXN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets: the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down this morning.

• The ECB's indicator of negotiated wage rates, due out today, will provide insight into pay settlements for Q4:25. 
• A broad-based moderation across wage growth measures is expected to have persisted, reinforcing the anticipated easing in domestic inflationary pressures.

• The Eurozone and UK PMI data releases for February are due out today.
• The Eurozone composite PMI survey for February will likely show that the region's economy continued to expand modestly in Q1:26.
• The composite index is expected to have increased to 51.5 in February, from 51.3 in January.
• The manufacturing index is likely to have increased, to the 50 pt benchmark line, while the services index is also expected to have improved.
• The UK composite, manufacturing and services indices are all likely to have slipped in February.
• The composite index is seen slipping to 51.5 in February, from 51.8 in January.

• Fed Governor Stephen Miran has tempered his expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts this year, citing recent data pointing to a more resilient US economy.
• He noted that the labour market has remained firmer than he had anticipated, while goods inflation has proven more persistent. 
• These developments have prompted him to reassess his earlier, more aggressive stance on easing.
• Miran now expects a cumulative 100 bps of rate cuts over the course of the year.
• Although this represents a less dovish position than he previously held, it still places him among the more accommodative policymakers at the Fed.

• The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, for December, is due for release today.
• Monthly core PCE inflation was likely up 0.3% in m/m in December, from 0.2% m/m in November.
• The updated estimate of Q4:25 US GDP is also scheduled for release.
• GDP is expected at 2.8% q/q (annualised) in Q4:25, from 4.4% q/q in Q3:25.
• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index tor February is also on the cards and is expected to have remained at 57.3 in February.
• Consumers remain anxious about labour market conditions, which may keep overall sentiment constrained.
• The US PMI data releases for February are due out today.
• The composite index is expected to have increased to 53.1 in February, from 53.0 in January.
• The services PMI is expected to have improved to 53.0 in February, from 52.7; the manufacturing PMI is expected to have remained unchanged at 52.4 in February. 

• Locally, it is a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 18.3% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 15.8% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $72.02/bbl; ($71.66/bbl*).
• Gold is at $5002/oz ($4996/oz*).
• SA CDS 141bbps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 225bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.06%*, German bund at 2.74%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.13%*, SA's R2035 at 8.00%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data: 

• 09h00: UK retail sales (January)
• 11h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services and composite PMI (February)
• 12h00: Eurozone negotiated wages (Q4:25)
• 11h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (February)
• 15h30: US personal income and spending (December), GDP (Q4:25)
• 16h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (February)
• 17h00: US new home sales (December), University of Michigan consumer confidence index, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (February – final)

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