In the loop 28 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.22/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.23/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+4.2%), RUB (+0.6%) and HUF (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the PHP (-0.5%), INR (-0.4%) and IDR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

UK shop price inflation eased in October, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
Shop prices rose 1.0% y/y, down from 1.4% y/y in September and below the three-month average of 1.1%.
Non-food prices declined by 0.4% y/y; food inflation moderated to 3.7% y/y in October, from 4.2% y/y in September, also below the three-month average of 4.0%.
However, fresh food inflation came in at 4.3% y/y, from 4.1% y/y in September, slightly above the three-month average of 4.2%.
The BRC said the slowdown in overall shop price inflation reflected intense competition among retailers and widespread discounting.

The ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey (BLS), due today, is expected to show that lending conditions continued to stabilise after a marked improvement over the past two years.
Eurozone inflation expectations 3 years ahead are likely to have remained unchanged, at 2.5%, in September.
Inflation expectations for 12 months ahead came in higher, at 2.8% in August, from 2.6% in July.
ECB policymakers are confident that inflation will hover around the central bank’s 2% target in the coming months.

President Trump yesterday praised the US alliance with Japan and commended newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for her plans to boost defence spending.
He also expressed optimism that the two countries had moved past their recent trade disputes.
Trump and Takaichi reached an agreement on trade and critical minerals; however, the details of the deals remained vague.
The trade document committed to “swift and continued efforts,” while the critical minerals pact promised cooperation on permitting, financing, and resource mapping.

The ongoing US government shutdown continues to delay the release of key economic data.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October, due out today, is unlikely to show strong optimism among consumers.
The consumer confidence index is expected to have slipped to 93.4 in October, from 94.2 in September.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index for August is also scheduled for release today and is expected to have increased by 1.4% y/y, after having increased by 1.8% y/y in July.

Oil prices held relatively steady yesterday, supported by optimism over global growth prospects following the US-China agreement on trade deal conditions.
This optimism helped offset concerns about rising global inventories.
Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 12.3% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and up by 51.1% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.48/bbl; ($65.62/bbl*).
Gold is at $3965/oz ($3982/oz*).
SA CDS 154bps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 248bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.97%*, German bund at 2.61%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.99%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.87%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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