In the loop 04 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.57/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.60/$*).
EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the KRW (-3.3%), ZAR (-3.2%) and HUF (-2.9%) were the biggest losers; the HKD was up by 0.2%.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: Poland's central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 3.75%, today.

China's factory activity slipped in February; the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in February, from 49.3 in January.
The services PMI improved slightly, while the composite PMI weakened in February; both PMIs remain in contraction.
The exporter-focused RatingDog manufacturing PMI increased in February to 52.1, from 50.3 in January.

New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday that additional rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation continued to slow, once most of the effects of tariffs have passed through to consumer prices.
He expects inflation to ease 2.5% by the end of 2026, then return to the Fed's 2% target in 2027.
He anticipates some further upward pressure on prices during the first half of this year due to tariffs.
Williams noted “promising signs of stabilisation” in the labour market in recent months, and said that the unemployment rate should decline gradually this year and next, supported by solid economic growth.
He added that, if inflation evolves as he expects, “further reductions in the Fed funds rate will eventually be warranted” to prevent monetary policy from becoming more restrictive over time.
He also described the impact of the Middel East war on financial markets as “reasonably muted” so far.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that he is no longer as confident in his earlier expectation of a 25 bps interest rate cut.
He cited renewed uncertainty stemming from the war in the Middle East.
Kashkari emphasised that the key issue for inflation is the persistence of higher energy prices following the recent surge in oil.
He said it remains too early to determine how lasting the impact on inflation may be.
Fed policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting this month.

The US ISM services PMI for February is scheduled for release today; conditions in the services sector appeared to have softened in February.
The Fed's Beige Book, also due today, could provide early insight into how firms are interpreting the Supreme Court's rejection of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Locally, S&P Global industry-wide PMI for February is due out today; the index is currently at the 50-benchmark line.
The increase to 50 in January signalled a return to neutral conditions, after a weak Q4:25.
The BER will release the business confidence index (BCI) for Q1:26 today; the index rose to 44 in Q4:25, after having fallen to 39 in Q3:25.
The increase in Q4:25 marked the first improvement after two consecutive declines and placed the index three points above its long-term average.
The survey suggested tentative optimism but warned that risks from policy uncertainty and global volatility could temper momentum going forward.

Brent crude oil is currently at $82.93/bbl; ($81.40/bbl*).
Gold is at $5158/oz ($5088/oz*).
SA CDS 150bbps*, Brazil 135bps* and Turkey 252bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.05%*, German bund at 2.75%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.43%*, SA's R2035 at 8.30%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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