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In the loop 02 November 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is trading at R16.68/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.70/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+0.7%), KRW (+0.5%) and INR (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-1.1%), COP (-0.8%) and ZAR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and the Shanghai composite are up.
 
  • Iran war: Iranian negotiators held a third consecutive day of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Sunday, with discussions focused on a proposed agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days and pave the way for renewed peace negotiations.
  • Tehran continued to demand the lifting of US sanctions, an easing of the American naval blockade and guarantees against further attacks.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to lift rates to the highest level since 2008, to 4.85%, tomorrow.
  • The Swedish Riksbank is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, by 25 bps, to 2.00%.
  • The BOE is expected to hike its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.00% on Thursday.
  • Malaysia's central bank is likely to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting on Thursday.
 
  • Japan's wage data for September, scheduled for release on Friday, will likely be consistent with continued upward pressure on consumer prices.
 
  • The Eurozone CPI report for October will be the key data release in the region this week (on Wednesday).
  • Headline CPI is expected to have increased to 4.0% y/y in October, from 3.8% y/y in September.
  • The headline increase is likely to illustrate the broad impact of the energy shock on the Eurozone economy.
  • Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% y/y in October, unchanged from September.
  • The Eurozone retail sales for September are scheduled for release on Friday and is expected to have increased by 0.6% y/y, following a 0.8% y/y increase in August.
 
  • Americans head to the polls tomorrow, for the US midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate up for grabs. 
  • The elections are widely seen as a key test of the President's administration, with voters weighing economic conditions, inflation, immigration and the direction of US policy.
  • The US ISM manufacturing PMI for October is due out today and is likely to have remained unchanged at 54.5.
  • The US JOLTS job openings data for September, due for release tomorrow, likely increased to 7.162 million in September, from 7.079 million in August.
  • The ISM services PMI for October is due out Wednesday and is expected to have slipped marginally.
  • The trade balance is on the cards on Wednesday; the deficit is likely to have widened in September, to -$107.9bn, from -$105.6bn in August. 
  • The non-farm payrolls for October are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 69k in October, after having increased by 28k in September.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged at 4.2%.
  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for November is scheduled for release on Friday; the index is expected to have remained steady at 48.0.
 
  • Locally, South Africans head to the polls on Wednesday to vote in the local government elections, which will determine the leadership of municipalities across the country for the next five years. 
  • The BER manufacturing PMI for October is due for release today; the index increased to 50.7 in September, from 48.5 in August.
  • The October Naamsa vehicle sales are also scheduled for release; vehicle sales increased by 12.7% y/y in September.
  • The industry-wide PMI for October is due out on Thursday; the index came in below the 50 pt benchmark level in September, at 49.0.
  • The electricity production and consumption data for September are also on the cards on Thursday.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 80.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 9.6% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $109.83/bbl; ($117.64/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3907/oz ($3874/oz*).
  • SA CDS 123bps*, Brazil 144bps* and Turkey 258bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.92%*, German bund at 3.32%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.75%*, SA's R2035 at 8.57%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 10h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI (October - final)
  • 11h00: SA BER manufacturing PMI (October)
  • 11h00: Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing PMI (October - final)
  • 16h45: US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (October - final)
  • 17h00: US ISM manufacturing PMI (October)
  • SA Naamsa vehicle sales (October)
 

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