In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.80/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.79/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TWD (+0.4%), PHP (+0.4%) and PEN (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-1.6%), COP (-1.0%) and BRL (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• China's economy expanded at 5% in 2024, slower than in 2023, but in line with Beijing’s target of 5% growth.
• Growth was supported by strong exports and recent economic stimulus measures.
• Chinese authorities have vowed further monetary easing and stronger public spending this year.
• This as China prepares for tariffs likely to be imposed by Donald Trump.
• The US president-elect has threatened tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods.
• This would significantly hit China’s trade and as hurt China’s key growth driver.

• The US NAHB housing market index increased to 47 pts in January, from 46 in December.
• The index, however, remains in negative territory (below 50). 
• The improvement came on the back of an increase in current single-family sales, which increased to 51 in January, from 48 in December.
• The index of prospective buyer traffic was also up in January.
• The NAHB expects further improvement for single-family housing starts in 2025, as the “market faces offsetting upside and downside risks from an improving regulatory outlook”.
• Housing starts and building permits for December are due later today.
• Housing starts are expected to have increased in December, while building permits are expected to have slipped.

• The Eurozone CPI for December (final estimate) is due out today.
• Headline CPI is likely to come in at 2.4% y/y in October, from 2.2% y/y in November.
• On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.4% in December, after having declined by 0.3% m/m in November.
• Core CPI is expected at 2.7% y/y in December, matching the November outcome.
• A large part of the increase came from fuel price base effects.

• The IMF will release its latest global economic forecasts today.
• In October, the IMF kept its global growth forecast for 2024 at 3.2% (from its July WEO update); it cut its forecast for 2025, to 3.2%, from its July estimate of 3.3%.
• The IMF at that time warned of accelerating risks – from wars, to trade protectionism.

• Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 9.7% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 3.4% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $81.86/bbl; ($81.29/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2713/oz ($2721/oz*).
• SA CDS 196bps*, Brazil 189bps* and Turkey 269bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.61%*, German bund at 2.54%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.51%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.53%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

• 09h00: UK retail sales (November)
• 11h00: Eurozone current account (November)
• 12h00: Eurozone CPI (December – final)
• 15h30: US housing starts (December), building permits (December)
• 16h15: US industrial production (December), capacity utilisation (December), manufacturing production (December)
• 16h00: IMF World Economic Outlook

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