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In the loop 04 November 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.53/$, after closing unchanged on Friday (R17.65/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely down on Friday; the MXN (-1.4%), BRL (-1.4%) and RUB (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • The central banks of Australia, Malaysia and Pakistan will be meeting this week.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank Negara Malaysia are likely to hold rates steady, while the State Bank of Pakistan is largely expected to cut rates.
  • Japan’s wage data is in the spotlight this week; the data is expected to show a pickup in September, a sign that inflationary momentum continues to build.
 
  • The BOE will meet on Thursday and will likely cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 4.75%.
  • The National Bank of Poland will likely keep the policy rate on hold, at 5.75%, on Wednesday, extending the pause since the last cut in October 2023. 
  • The Swedish Riksbank is expected to cut rates on Thursday, by 50 bps, to 2.75%.
  • German industrial production figures, due on Thursday, will probably highlight a still struggling sector.
 
  • The US presidential election takes place tomorrow; victory will likely come down to thousands of votes in swing states.
  • The US FOMC is due to announce its next interest rate decision on Thursday, just two days after the polls close on Tuesday.
  • While the results may not be known by then, the Fed is largely expected to cut the Fed’s funds rate, by 25 bps.
  • Several US policymakers recently expressed the desire to cut rates at a more gradual pace, after having cut by 50 bps in September.
  • The US trade balance for September, due out tomorrow, is likely to show the deficit widening to $84.1bn, from a deficit of $70.4bn in August.
  • The ISM services index for October is scheduled for release tomorrow; services activity in October is expected to have slipped to 53.8, from 54.9 in September.
  • The University of Michigan sentiment survey for November is due out on Friday; consumer sentiment will likely be affected by the results of the US presidential election.
 
  • Locally, the industry-wide PMI for October is due out tomorrow; the index is currently just above the 50pt benchmark, at 51.0.
  • The SARB’s gross and net reserves for October are scheduled for release on Thursday. 
  • Gross reserves came in at $63.63bn in September, while net reserves were at $61.03bn in September.
  • Electricity production and consumption for September are also scheduled for release on Thursday.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 3.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 32.9% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $74.24/bbl; ($73.10/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2741/oz ($2736/oz*).
  • SA CDS 191bps*, Brazil 162bps* and Turkey 266bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.38%*, German bund at 2.40%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.52%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.58%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 11h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI (October – final)
  • 11h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (November)
  • 17h00: US factory orders (September), durable goods orders (September – final)
 

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