In the loop 09 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.8/4$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.54/$*).
EM currencies were largely down on Friday; the ZAR (+0.8%), BRL (+0.5%) and PLN (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-1.1%), PHP (-0.8%) and HUF (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the Pakistan central bank is largely expected to hold rates steady today.
The Turkish central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 37.0%, on Thursday.

China's export data, due tomorrow, may show that shipments kicked off 2026 on a solid footing, demonstrating resilience, even before the US Supreme Court struck down tariffs in late February.
Japan's Q4:25 GDP figures, also scheduled for release tomorrow, are expected to show the economy expanding by 1.2% q/q (annualised), following growth of 0.2% q/q in Q3:25.

In Germany, industrial activity data due later today are likely to indicate a modest increase in January.
Momentum is expected to strengthen over the course of the year as higher fiscal spending begins to support activity.
The UK's monthly GDP release for January is expected to show that the economy started the year on a more positive footing.

The US February CPI report will be a key focus this week Wednesday.
Headline inflation is expected to have remained at 2.4% y/y in February.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3% in February, following a 0.2% increase in January.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for February, scheduled for release tomorrow, likely increased to 99.5 in February, from 99.3 in January.
Existing home sales for February, due tomorrow, are expected to have decreased by 0.8% m/m, following an 8.4% m/m decline in January.
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator for January, the core PCE deflator, is expected to have increased in January.
The Q4:25 GDP print is also scheduled for release; the data is expected to reflect the impact of the government shutdown.
The Empire State manufacturing index for February is due out on Friday.

Locally, GDP growth for Q4:25 is in the spotlight tomorrow and is expected to have increased by 0.3% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.5% q/q (sa) in Q3:25.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 1.8% in Q4:25, after having increased 2.1% y/y in Q3:25.
The current account for Q4:25 is scheduled for release on Thursday; the deficit is expected to have swung into a surplus of 0.6% of GDP in Q4:25, from a deficit of 0.7% of GDP in Q3:25.
Mining production for January is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have increased by 2.7% y/y in January, up from 2.5% y/y in December.
Manufacturing production for January is also due out on Thursday; production is likely to have decreased by 0.1% y/y in January, after having fallen by 1.4% y/y in December.

Oil prices surged toward $120/bbl after major Middle Eastern producers curtailed output and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.
The conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of easing following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing crude and natural gas prices higher.
US President Trump has said short-term increases in oil prices are a “very small price to pay” for the US, the world, and peace.
He added that prices would fall rapidly once the destruction of the Iranian nuclear threat is complete.
Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 89.3% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and up by 17.9% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $115.20/bbl; ($92.69/bbl*).
Gold is at $5090/oz ($5171/oz*).
SA CDS 154bbps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 258bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.13%*, German bund at 2.86%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.61%*, SA's R2035 at 8.48%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF