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In the loop 22 November 2022

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.28/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.33/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.3%), COP (+0.9%) and HKD (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.5%), THB (-1.3%) and KRW (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down. 
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented on the path to price stability yesterday.
  • Daly noted that the FOMC would be mindful of impact lags whilst hiking rates further to drive down inflation.
  • Daly noted that “adjusting too little will leave inflation too high”, while hiking “too much could lead to an unnecessarily painful downturn”.
  • She said that getting rates to 5% "is a good starting point."
  • Daly said that policymakers need to remain cognisant of the gap between the Fed funds rate and the tightening in financial markets.
  • Fed President Loretta Mester noted that the Fed may ease the pace of tightening next month as officials assess the impact of previous rate moves.
  • Several Fed policymakers are due to speak today.
  • Hungary’s central bank will decide on rates today, and is likely to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 13%.
  • The Bank of Israel has raised interest rates for the 6th consecutive time, albeit less than expected, by 50 bps, to 3.25%. 
  • The OECD will publish its latest Economic Outlook today.
  • The agency’s most recent forecasts, released in September, pointed to a worsening outlook for next year. 
  • The US economy is largely expected to fall into a recession; the UK is already facing a lengthy recession.
  • While economic growth in the Eurozone has held up better than expected, recession risks are still looming amid energy shortages and elevated inflation.
  • Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for September is due out today; the index slipped to 123.4 in August, from 126.2 in July.
  • Eskom has implemented Stage 2 loadshedding until 4pm; Stage 4 loadshedding is expected at 4pm until 5am. 
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 13.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 4.6% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $87.85/bbl; ($87.45/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1744/oz ($1736/oz*).
  • SA CDS 269bps*, Brazil 267bps* and Turkey 594bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.82%*, German bund at 1.99%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.92%*, SA’s R186 at 8.71%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

 Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: SA leading indicator (September)
  • 11h00: Eurozone current account (September)
  • 12h00: Eurozone OECD publishes Economic Outlook
  • 17h00: Eurozone consumer confidence (November)

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