In the loop
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.28/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.33/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.3%), COP (+0.9%) and HKD (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.5%), THB (-1.3%) and KRW (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented on the path to price stability yesterday.
- Daly noted that the FOMC would be mindful of impact lags whilst hiking rates further to drive down inflation.
- Daly noted that “adjusting too little will leave inflation too high”, while hiking “too much could lead to an unnecessarily painful downturn”.
- She said that getting rates to 5% "is a good starting point."
- Daly said that policymakers need to remain cognisant of the gap between the Fed funds rate and the tightening in financial markets.
- Fed President Loretta Mester noted that the Fed may ease the pace of tightening next month as officials assess the impact of previous rate moves.
- Several Fed policymakers are due to speak today.
- Hungary’s central bank will decide on rates today, and is likely to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 13%.
- The Bank of Israel has raised interest rates for the 6th consecutive time, albeit less than expected, by 50 bps, to 3.25%.
- The OECD will publish its latest Economic Outlook today.
- The agency’s most recent forecasts, released in September, pointed to a worsening outlook for next year.
- The US economy is largely expected to fall into a recession; the UK is already facing a lengthy recession.
- While economic growth in the Eurozone has held up better than expected, recession risks are still looming amid energy shortages and elevated inflation.
- Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for September is due out today; the index slipped to 123.4 in August, from 126.2 in July.
- Eskom has implemented Stage 2 loadshedding until 4pm; Stage 4 loadshedding is expected at 4pm until 5am.
- Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 13.0% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this morning, and down by 4.6% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $87.85/bbl; ($87.45/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1744/oz ($1736/oz*).
- SA CDS 269bps*, Brazil 267bps* and Turkey 594bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 3.82%*, German bund at 1.99%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.92%*, SA’s R186 at 8.71%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 09h00: SA leading indicator (September)
- 11h00: Eurozone current account (September)
- 12h00: Eurozone OECD publishes Economic Outlook
- 17h00: Eurozone consumer confidence (November)