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In the loop 11 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R17.76/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.75/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+5.2%), BRL (+0.7%) and ZAR (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the PLN (-0.4%), TWD (-0.3%) and RON (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • US President Trump has announced a 35% tariff on some Canadian products from 1 August. 
  • The 10% tariff on energy-related goods remains in place.
  • President Trump said that he plans include tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trade partners.
  • He noted that the EU members would get letters today.
 
  • St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem has noted that it is too soon to know the impact of tariffs on inflation.
  • He added that “it’s going to take time for the tariffs to settle”.
  • He highlighted scenarios where tariffs are still “working themselves into the economy” in Q4 this year, or Q1/Q2 next year.
  • Two scenarios were noted: 1) price pressures from tariffs could be short-lived; or 2) inflation could be more persistent.
  • Musalem had noted earlier that tariffs might dampen economic growth and weaken the US labour market.
  • He reiterated that monetary policy is well positioned to respond to any changes in the economic outlook.
 
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has noted that she sees two interest rate cuts this year.
  • Daly remarked that some firms are negotiating to split up tariff costs so that they don’t have to pass as much of the expense to end customers.
 
  • BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden yesterday remarked that climate change poses a risk to the UK’s economic stability. 
  • Breeden added that it has the “potential to worsen inflationary shocks and trigger the sudden repricing of assets”.
  • Breeden further highlighted evidence of extreme weather events that have pushed up inflation through supply shocks.
 
  • The UK monthly GDP for May is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, after having contracted by 0.3% m/m in April.
  • The contraction in April was driven by a number of factors, including a drop in exports to the US after big tariff announcements at the start of that month.
 
  • Locally, it is a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 7.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 27.1% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $68.76/bbl; ($68.64/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3337/oz ($3324/oz*).
  • SA CDS 186bps*, Brazil 148bps* and Turkey 282bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.34%*, German bund at 2.70%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.85%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.77%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: UK monthly GDP (May), industrial production (May), visible trade balance (May)
  • 20h00: US Federal budget balance (June)
 

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