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In the loop 10 June 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.87/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.90/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the KRW (+0.6%), IDR (+0.4%) and PHP (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-4.6%), BRL (-1.7%) and PLN (-1.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity market the Nikkei is up.
  • The Bank of Japan will meet on Friday to decide on rates; the central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged.
  • Governor Kazuo Ueda, however, will likely signal the possibility of an interest rate hike in July.
  • The Pakistan central bank will meet today; expectations are for the central bank to begin its easing cycle to counteract the surge in real interest rates and support the economy.
  • The Bank of Thailand on Wednesday is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady.
  • China’s CPI for May, due out on Wednesday, is expected to have increased by 0.4% y/y, after having increased by 0.3% y/y April.
  • UK labour data, due out on Tuesday, will likely show that wage gains remained elevated at the start of Q2:24.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to have remained steady, at 4.3%, in April.
  • UK monthly GDP for April, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is likely to signal a cooling pace of economic growth.
  • In the Eurozone, industrial production for April is on the cards on Thursday and is expected to have declined.
  • The US May CPI is in the spotlight this week, due out on Wednesday and ahead of the FOMC interest decision later that day.
  • Headline CPI is likely to come in at 3.4% y/y in May, matching April’s increase; core CPI is expected to have moderated to 3.5% y/y in May, from 3.6% y/y in April. 
  • The FOMC on Wednesday is expected to keep the Fed funds rate steady.
  • Investors will keep an eye on comments regarding whether interest rates are restrictive enough. 
  • The Fed’s dot plot will likely signal two rate cuts for this year.
  • The NFIB small business optimism index, due out tomorrow, may have improved slightly in May, for a second consecutive month. 
  • The Empire manufacturing survey for June is due out on Friday; an improvement to 73.0 is expected, from 69.1 in May.
  • Locally, manufacturing production for April is due out tomorrow; production is expected to have increased by 1.6% y/y in April, after having declined by 6.4% y/y in March. 
  • On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 1.9% in April, following a decline of 2.2% in March.
  • Mining production for April, due on Thursday, likely increased by 1.1% y/y, after having decreased by 5.8% y/y in March. 
  • Mining production is likely to have increased by 4.0% m/m in April, after having declined by 5.0% y/y in March.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 3.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 11.3% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $79.82/bbl; ($79.62/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2295/oz ($2293/oz*).
  • SA CDS 234bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 262bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.43%*, German bund at 2.62%*, SA 10-year generic at 11.94%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.52%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 10h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (June)

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