In the loop 15 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.30/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.22/$*).
EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the CLP (-1.6%), MXN (-0.9%) and HUF (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: continued disruptions to both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes contributed to heightened concerns about global energy supplies.
This is reinforcing fears of a prolonged conflict rather than a near-term resolution.
As such, oil prices are hovering above $100/bbl.

China's economic activity remained uneven in August, with weak consumer spending and investment contrasting with stronger industrial production.
Retail sales rose just 0.4% y/y, below the 0.8% y/y estimate, and slowing from 0.6% y/y in July.
Fixed asset investment fell 7.2% in the first eight months of the year, slightly worse than expected.
In contrast, industrial production grew 5.2% y/y in August, up from 4.5% y/y in July.
Today's data highlights a persistent imbalance between resilient supply and weak domestic demand, increasing the pressure on policymakers to provide additional economic support.

ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday commented that Europe must develop its own AI models and data centres to reduce reliance on the US and China.
She noted that Europe trails significantly in AI development and hosts just 5% of global computing capacity, versus 75% in the US.
Lagarde said that Europe risks either slower AI adoption and weaker growth and/or greater dependence on foreign technology.
She added that growing AI use across critical sectors makes Europe vulnerable to restrictions and/or changes in access.
Such dependence could give foreign powers significant leverage over Europe in trade and other negotiations.
Lagarde added that greater AI sovereignty would strengthen Europe's economic security and independence.

ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel yesterday noted that recent energy price developments have been “quite concerning”.
She highlighted the renewed inflation risks stemming from the prolonged Middle East conflict.
Schnabel noted that the rise in energy costs extends beyond crude oil to include refined products such as diesel, while natural gas prices have also increased significantly, posing particular challenges for Europe.
Schnabel's comments suggest that policymakers remain alert to the possibility that higher energy costs could lead to more persistent inflation than previously anticipated.
Her remarks reinforce the view that the balance of risks to the ECB's inflation outlook remains tilted to the upside.

Germany's September ZEW survey expectations are due out today; the index is expected to have improved further, to around 40.0, from 34.2 in August.
Such an outcome would indicate growing optimism among about Germany's economic prospects over the next six months, extending the steady improvement in sentiment seen in recent months.

The UK jobs data is in the spotlight today and will likely see y/y regular pay growth in the private sector remaining unchanged, at 2.8% y/y in the three months to July, from 2.8% y/y in the three months to June.
The unemployment rate is also expected to have remained unchanged in July, at 4.9%.
Employment growth is likely to remain subdued as businesses continue to navigate weak economic growth, higher borrowing costs and lingering uncertainty.
Attention will also focus on vacancies and payroll employment data for signs of whether labour market tightness is easing further.

The US Empire State manufacturing index for September, scheduled for release today, is likely to have slipped to 15.0, from 20.6 in August.
The manufacturing sector is expected to be supported by solid demand, improving order books and resilient production activity, although the pace of growth is anticipated to have cooled from August.
Investors will pay particular attention to the new orders, shipments, employment and prices components for clues on the broader health of the US manufacturing sector and the outlook for inflation.
The index increased to its highest reading in four years in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $107.47/bbl; ($105.68/bbl*).
Gold is at $4298/oz ($4299/oz*).
SA CDS 120bps*, Brazil 113bps* and Turkey 231bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.98%*, German bund at 3.51%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.02%*, SA's R2035 at 8.81%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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