In the loop 30 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.66/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.77/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+0.7%), PHP (+0.4%) and ARS (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.5%), HUF (-1,0%) and ZAR (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: negotiations were overshadowed yesterday by a sharp deterioration in security conditions after Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan.
US officials said that the attack was fully intercepted.
In response, Washington resumed airstrikes against targets in Iran, ending a brief pause in military operations that had been intended to provide space for diplomacy.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC kept the Fed funds rate unchanged, at 3.5%-3.75%, as expected.
Notably, the decision was not unanimous, with three policymakers dissenting in favour of a 25 bps rate increase, highlighting growing concern within the FOMC that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside.
The FOMC noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, the labour market remains broadly stable, and unemployment low.
However, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target.
Policymakers cited ongoing supply-side pressures, particularly from elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, alongside robust business investment and productivity gains.
The statement largely echoed the FOMC's June assessment, signalling that policymakers remain data-dependent and are not prepared to commit to a specific policy path.
The BOE will meet today to decide on rates and is largely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, citing softer-than-expected inflation data and a loose labour market.

The ECB's latest wage tracker continued to point to a moderation and stabilisation in negotiated wage growth.
The tracker indicated that negotiated wages, excluding the distorting effects of one-off payments, are expected to increase by around 2.6% throughout 2026.
The data provided reassurance that underlying domestic inflation pressures are easing despite higher energy prices.

The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for July (final estimate) is due out today; sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged, at -15.9 in July, from the previous estimate, and from -17.6 in June.
Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 96.0 in July, from 95.0 in June.
The preliminary Eurozone Q2:26 GDP print is also scheduled for release today.
GDP is expected to have risen by 0.2% q/q in Q2:26, after having flatlined in Q1:26.
The unemployment rate for June is largely expected to remain unchanged, at 6.2%.

The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge for June, the core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, after having increased by 0.3% m/m in May.
Today will also see the release of the first estimate of Q2:26 GDP, with real growth likely around 2.0% q/q, from 2.1% q/q in Q1:26.
Consumer spending is likely to have increased in the second quarter.

Locally, the June PPI is due out today and is expected to come in at 7.8% y/y, matching May's outcome.
The monthly budget balance for June is also scheduled for release.

Brent crude oil is currently at $91.44/bbl; ($90.74/bbl*).
Gold is at $4033/oz ($4027/oz*).
SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 240bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.67%*, German bund at 3.16%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.80%*, SA's R2035 at 8.62%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

11h00: Eurozone economic confidence (July), consumer confidence ( July – final), GDP (Q2:26), unemployment rate (June)
11h30: SA PPI (June)
13h00: UK BOE interest rate decision – no change expected
14h00: SA monthly budget balance (June)
14h30: US personal income and spending (June), PCE price index (June), GDP (Q2:26), initial jobless claims (25 July)

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