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In the loop 02 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.08/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R15.93/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the ARS (+0.8%), PLN (+0.4%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.8%), KRW (-0.5%) and CNY (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • The US and Israel launched coordinated missile attacks on Iran over the weekend.
  • Risk-sensitive currencies are down this morning as the conflict between the US and Iran escalates.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.
 
  • Central bank watch: Bank Negara Malaysia meets on Thursday and is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged.
  • Economic growth has remained resilient despite external headwinds, while inflation remains contained. 
 
  • China's National People's Congress convenes this week and will unveil the new 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan, outlining Beijing's strategic priorities and broad policy direction for the year ahead.
  • February's official PMIs, due out on Wednesday, are expected to signal some cooling in activity, largely reflecting seasonal distortions from the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday. 
  • The exporter-focused RatingDog manufacturing PMI may soften as holiday-related disruptions weigh on output and new orders.
 
  • The Eurozone CPI for February is the key release in the region this week. 
  • Inflation is already running well below the ECB's 2% target. 
  • While the ECB had indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, any further downside surprise in inflation would increase pressure on the ECB to reassess its policy stance.
  • The UK Nationwide house price data for February is due for release today.
  • Prices are expected to have increased by 0.7% y/y, from an increase of 1.0% y/y in January. 
  • The housing market was volatile throughout 2025, with April's stamp duty increase triggering a wave of front-loaded transactions, followed by a subsequent correction.
 
  • The US ISM manufacturing PMI for February is due out today and is likely to have slipped to 51.5, from 52.6 in January.
  • The ISM services PMI for February is due out on Wednesday; conditions in the services sector appeared to have softened in February.
  • The Fed's Beige Book, due on Wednesday, could provide early insight into how firms are interpreting the Supreme Court's rejection of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
  • The non-farm payrolls for February are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 60k, after having increased by 130k in January.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.3%.
  • Retail sales data are also due Friday; sales are expected have declined by 0.3% m/m in February, after stagnating in December.
 
  • Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for February is due for release today; the index increased to 48.7 in January, from 40.5 in December.
  • The February Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 7.5% y/y in January.
  • The industry-wide PMI for February is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently at the 50-benchmark line.
  • The BER releases the business confidence index for Q1:26 on Wednesday; the index rose to 44 in Q4:25, after having fallen to 39 in Q3:25.
  • Electricity production and consumption for January are due for release on Thursday.
  • The SARB's gross and net reserves for February are scheduled for release on Friday. 
  • Gross reserves came in at $80.19bn in January, while net reserves came in at $74.88bn in January. 
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 27.90% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 24.0% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $77.81/bbl; ($72.48/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $5357/oz ($5278/oz*).
  • SA CDS 141bbps*, Brazil 131bps* and Turkey 235bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.97%*, German bund at 2.64%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.10%*, SA's R2035 at 7.95%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: UK Nationwide house prices (February)
  • 11h00: SA BER manufacturing PMI (February)
  • 11h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI (February – final)
  • 11h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI (February – final), mortgage applications (January)
  • 16h45: US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (February – final)
  • 17h00: US ISM manufacturing (February)
  • SA Naamsa vehicle sales (February)
 

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