Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Help and Support
Help and Support
In the loop 11 June 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R18.75/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.75/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.8%) and RUB (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.9%), THB (-0.9%) and KRW (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down. 
  • UK labour data will likely show that wage gains remained elevated at the start of Q2:24.
  • Average hourly earnings, excluding bonuses, are expected to have increased to 6.1% y/y in April, from 6.0% y/y in March.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to have remained steady, at 4.3%, in April.
  • The data, however, will unlikely deter the BOE from cutting interest rates soon.
  • Nonetheless, the BOE will keep a close eye on labour and wage data in the coming months.
  • The US NFIB small business optimism index may have slipped slightly in May.
  • The optimism index is likely to have eased to 89.6 in May, from 89.7 in April.
  • A separate NFIB survey showed that a net 15% (the highest in a year) of small business owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months.
  • However, fewer owners plan to raise compensation in the coming months.
  • The US FOMC begins its 2-day policy meeting today; the Fed is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged when the meeting concludes tomorrow. 
  • Investors will keep an eye on changes to both the inflation and GDP growth forecasts as well as the Fed's dot plot.
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde commented yesterday that the central bank must remain cautious. 
  • Lagarde noted that last week’s interest rate cut won’t be the followed by further rapid rate cuts.
  • She added that the bank would assess new projections at every step of the way before making decisions.
  • Locally, manufacturing production for April is due out today; production is expected to have increased by 1.6% y/y in April, after having declined by 6.4% y/y in March. 
  • On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 1.9% in April, following a decline of 2.2% in March.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • SA election update: SA’s parliament is preparing to reconvene on Friday to elect a president.
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 5.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 11.7% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $81.54/bbl; ($81.63/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2303/oz ($2313/oz*).
  • SA CDS 230bps*, Brazil 148bps* and Turkey 263bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.46%*, German bund at 2.67%*, SA 10-year generic at 11.83%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.37%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: Japan machine tool orders (May)
  • 08h00: UK ILO unemployment rate (April), average weekly earnings (April)
  • 12h00: US NFIB small business optimism (May)
  • 13h00: SA manufacturing production (April)

Read PDF