In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.43/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.52/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MXN (+1.2%), RUB (+1.1%) and ZAR (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.5%), TRY (-0.2%) and COP (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

• Central bank watch: the ECB’s monetary policy committee meeting is in the spotlight this week (Thursday), with a third interest rate cut on the cards.
• The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will likely keep the policy rate on hold on Thursday, at 50%, for a seventh consecutive time.
• The central banks in Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia will make policy decisions this week.

• China’s GDP for Q3:24 will be in the spotlight this week (on Friday); the data is likely to show the slowdown as deepening in China.
• This may underline the need for policymakers to move swiftly in executing the stimulus measures.
• Japan’s CPI for September is due out on Friday; core CPI is likely to have moderated in September but is still likely to remain above the BOJ’s 2% target.

• The results of the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey, due out tomorrow, will likely confirm demand for and supply of credit as improving.
• UK wage (tomorrow) and inflation data (on Wednesday) for September will be closely monitored by the BOE ahead of its policy meeting in early November.
• UK CPI is likely to come in at 1.9% y/y in September, from 2.2% y/y in August.
• Core CPI is expected at 3.4% y/y in September, from 3.6% y/y in August.
• Services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.

• The US Empire manufacturing survey for October is due out tomorrow; the headline index is expected to show that business conditions have worsened in October, to 3.6, from 11.5 in September.
• September retail sales, scheduled for release on Thursday, are expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m, following a 0.1% m/m increase in August.
• Such an increase is expected on the back of a rebound in vehicle sales, albeit offset by a seasonally sharp decline in gasoline prices.
• Industrial production for September is due on Thursday; September’s survey data points to a slowdown in production after August’s surge.
• Business inventories for August, also due out on Thursday, likely increased 0.3% m/m, following a 0.4% m/m increase in July. 
• The NAHB housing market index for October is due for release on Thursday; sentiment among home-builders is expected to have increased to 43 in October, from 41 in September.
• Housing starts and building permits for September are due out on Friday; both are likely to have slipped in September.

• Locally, the SACCI business confidence index for September is due out tomorrow; the index increased to 109.1 in July.
• Retail sales for August, due out on Wednesday, are expected to have increased by 2.3% y/y, following 2.0% y/y in July.
• Retail sales were down by 0.2% m/m in July.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 1.4% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 28.9% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $78.13/bbl; ($79.04/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2660/oz ($2656/oz*).
• SA CDS 180bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.10%*, German bund at 2.26%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.30%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.37%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

• 09h00: China trade balance (September)

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