Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 10 September 2024

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is trading at R17.84/$ this morning, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.87/$*).
  • EM currencies were mostly weaker yesterday; the COP (-1.6%), THB (-1.3%) and HUF (-1.0%) lost the most; the MXN (+0.6%) and BRL (+0.3%) gained.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.
 
  • China’s trade surplus widened unexpectedly in August.
  • The trade balance reached $91.02bn in August, up from $84.65bn in July.
  • Export growth, at 8.7% y/y in August, from 7.0% y/y in July, surprised on the upside.
  • Imports faltered, barely growing, at 0.5% y/y in August; this demonstrates weak internal demand.
 
  • New York Fed 1-year US inflation expectations remained relatively high in August.
  • Consumers’ inflation expectations for 1-year ahead came in at 3.00% in August, from 2.97% in July.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt repayment rose to 13.6% in August, the highest since April 2020.
  • US consumer borrowing jumped during July, the most since November 2022 – showing strong demand for credit.
  • Consumer credit rose $25.45bn in July (up from $5.23bn in June), with non-revolving credit and credit cards seeing the largest increases.
 
  • A slew of UK labour data will be in the spotlight this morning.
  • The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined to 4.1% in the three months ending July, from 4.2% in the previous three months.
  • Employment likely increased 123k over the three months ending July, compared to 97k during the previous three-month period.
  • Average weekly earnings growth is expected to have decelerated to 4.1% y/y in the three months to July, down from 4.5% y/y in the previous period.
 
  • Locally, manufacturing production data for July is on the cards today.
  • Manufacturing production likely increased after dipping during June, with the BER manufacturing PMI for July showing an improvement.
  • Production is expected to have risen 1.2% m/m in July, after contracting by 0.5% m/m in June.
  • In annual terms, factory output likely grew 0.9% y/y in July, from a contraction of 5.2% y/y in June.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 6.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 21.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $71.74/bbl; ($71.84/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2503/oz ($2504/oz*).
  • SA CDS 186bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 273bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.70%*, German bund at 2.17%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.33%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.00%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: Japan machine tool orders (August – preliminary)
  • 08h00: UK ILO unemployment rate, weekly earnings (July)
  • 08h00: UK jobless claims (August)
  • 10h00: SA manufacturing production (July)
  • 12h00: US NFIB small business optimism (August)
 

Read PDF